Eventos Anais de eventos
COBEM 2023
27th International Congress of Mechanical Engineering
Risk quantification in corroded offshore pipelines using semi-empirical methods and finite element models
Submission Author:
Elyaquim Domingos Torres , PE , Brazil
Co-Authors:
Elyaquim Domingos Torres, juliana torres , Silvana Maria Bastos Afonso da Silva, Andréa Raffaella Avelar Pimentel Vila Nova, Nadège Bouchonneau
Presenter: Elyaquim Domingos Torres
doi://10.26678/ABCM.COBEM2023.COB2023-1934
Abstract
The oil and gas sector is vital to the global industry by contributing to foreign exchange markets, job creation, and energy supply. Pipelines are the preferred method for transporting these resources due to their cost-effectiveness and security. However, pipeline corrosion poses a significant challenge, leading to environmental, economic, and social consequences if not addressed. This study aims to analyze the risk of corroded offshore pipelines using statistical concepts and reliability methods like FORM and Monte Carlo simulation. Computational simulations based on the finite element method and semi-empirical methods will quantify the failure pressure. The study follows DNV-RP-F101 (2015) recommendations for failure pressure semi-empirical quantification and uses axisymmetric elements for numerical modeling. DNV-RP-G101 (2017) recommendations guide the risk assessment, providing insights for pipeline integrity management and an efficient monitoring system. The study found that failure probabilities derived from Monte Carlo and FORM simulations using a semi-empirical approach were similar. Additionally, when only one variable was considered random, the failure pressures calculated using the finite element method closely matched those from the semi-empirical method. Furthermore, the research unveiled earlier average risk intervals (approximately 2 years) through Monte Carlo simulations and an axisymmetric numerical model, contrasting with the FORM method with DNV.
Keywords
Risk Analysis, Structural safety and reliability, corroded pipelines, Finite Element Method
