Eventos Anais de eventos
COBEM 2023
27th International Congress of Mechanical Engineering
Epistemic uncertainties and their role in optimal design of engineering systems
Submission Author:
Andre Beck , SP
Co-Authors:
Andre Beck
Presenter: Andre Beck
doi://10.26678/ABCM.COBEM2023.COB2023-0044
Abstract
It is nowadays well accepted that engineering systems need to be designed considering the inherent uncertainties in demands and capacities. Robust, reliability-based and risk-based optimization are three modern approaches to address the optimal design problem under objective aleatory uncertainty, that is: uncertainty which can be quantified using probability theory. Yet, subjective epistemic uncertainties, related to limitations of knowledge, social, political, financial, organizational, and behavioral factors, human errors, etc., cannot be quantified probabilistically, but also need to be considered in design optimization. In this manuscript a procedure is proposed to address epistemic uncertainties in optimal design of structural systems. Examples are shown involving optimal design of truss and frame elements, with explicit modelling of progressive collapse. An optimal redundancy allocation problem is also addressed.
Keywords
Robust optimization, risk-based optimization, reliability-based optimization, Epistemic Uncertainty, latent failure probability
