Eventos Anais de eventos
DINAME 2023
XIX International Symposium on Dynamic Problems of Mechanics
System Identification and Optimal Control for COVID-19 Epidemiological Dynamics in Amazonas State, Brazil.
Submission Author:
Kamilla Cerdeira de Oliveira , AM , Brazil
Co-Authors:
Kamilla Cerdeira de Oliveira, Danilo de Santana Chui, Gustavo Cunha da Silva Neto
Presenter: Danilo de Santana Chui
doi://10.26678/ABCM.DINAME2023.DIN2023-0056
Abstract
This work aims to identify and to obtain an optimal control strategy for an epidemiological model of the COVID-19 pandemic at the State of Amazonas. Firstly, it was identified a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of coronavirus propagation at the state. In order to identify the model, it was chosen a SIRD type, whose parameters were estimated using the Least Squares Method for different scenarios: from August to November 2020 and from January to March 2021. After the parameters' estimation, the Optimal Control Problem was formulated and a performance index was chosen to minimize the cost associated with infection cases, deaths and pandemic control actions over the population. The characterization of the optimal solution was accomplished by using the Pontryagin Principle approach, restricting the final time of the control horizon. Finally, numerical solutions of state and co-state equations were obtained applying the forward and backward sweep method.
Keywords
parameter estimation, Inverse problem, Pontryagin Principle, Optimal Control, COVID-19 in Amazonas
