Eventos Anais de eventos
COBEM 2021
26th International Congress of Mechanical Engineering
Estimation of Atmospheric Emissions by an Adaptive Monte Carlo Markov Chain Method
Submission Author:
Roseane Albani , RJ
Co-Authors:
Roseane Albani, Vinicius Albani, Helio Migon, Antônio Silva Neto
Presenter: Roseane Albani
doi://10.26678/ABCM.COBEM2021.COB2021-0623
Abstract
The release of toxic gases into the atmosphere is a subject of great environmental concern. Such releases might occur in several ways, including in regular industrial activities and accidents. The proper identification of the origin and the quantity of released harmful materials is essential particularly in emergencies to avoid or reduce possible damages. To address such a relevant inverse problem, this work proposes a combination of accurate numerical techniques to model the dispersion in the atmosphere and to estimate emission sources from atmospheric releases. Considering a Bayesian inference framework, we propose the use of an adaptive Metropolis in Gibbs algorithm to estimate the sources and the so-called precision of the concentration measurements. The predicted concentrations necessary to solve this inverse problem are obtained from the numerical solution of an advection-diffusion partial differential equation given by a stabilized finite element method. The performance of the proposed algorithm is evaluated against experimental datasets.
Keywords
Source Identification, Bayesian inference, Adaptive MCMC, Computational Fluid Dynamics CFD
