Eventos Anais de eventos
ENCIT 2018
Brazilian Congress of Thermal Sciences and Engineering
UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF TRANSIENT PROBLEMS USING MONTE CARLO METHOD
Submission Author:
Hiago Souza da Silva , PR
Co-Authors:
Hiago Souza da Silva, Tainan Gabardo, Cezar Otaviano Ribeiro Negrao
Presenter: Hiago Souza da Silva
doi://10.26678/ABCM.ENCIT2018.CIT18-0547
Abstract
Uncertainties in mathematical models appears due to lack of knowledge of the physical phenomena being described and its intrinsic randomness. A proper quantification makes the model more robust and feasible. For processes involving safety and reliability, an assessment of the effects of uncertainties is crucial in order to prevent and avoid catastrophic failures and undesirable events. This study investigates the pressure needed to restart the flow during the drilling process. The problem is considered as a pipeline filled with gelled drilling fluid at rest. In order to start up the flow, a pressure higher than the usual is required. It is essential to control the pressures involved in the process as a higher pressure may damage the formation and a lower pressure may cause a kick. The damage on the formation represents a loss of drilling fluid to the formation and the kick may cause serious problems such as a blowout. These problems can cause environmental and financial issues. In order to assure that the pressure is between this narrow gap, it is necessary to model the uncertainties associated to the restart problem. The objective of this paper is to use the Monte Carlo Method to assess the uncertainties during flow start-up conditions.
Keywords
Restart, Monte Carlo method, LHS, mathematical model, transient simulation
