COBEM99

S4 Ciências e Engenharia do Petróleo

Title:

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR MULTI-ATTRIBUTES DECISION MODELS FOR OIL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS

Summary :

ABSTRACT. THE OIL COMPANIES ARE FACING PRESENTLY A COMPETITIVE SCENE DUE OF HIGH PRICE VOLATILE, LOW PROFITS MARGINS AND INCREASING ENVIRONMENT CONSTRAINTS. IN THIS SCENARIO THE FIRMS SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE DECISION TOOLS FOR EVALUATE THE COST AND BENEFIT IMPACT FROM THE FINANCIAL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS. THIS PAPER PRESENTS A FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING THE WEIGHTS OF MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MODELS, USING A HIGH DIMENSIONAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. THIS APPROACH ALLOWS A BETTER SIMULTANEOUS CHANGES OF THE WEIGHTS AND PROVIDE INDICATIONS FOR A ROBUSTNESS CONTROL OF THE WEIGHTS. THE SIMULATION PROCEDURES WERE APPLIED IN A HYPOTHETICAL STUDY CASE OF A PETROLEUM PRODUCTION SYSTEM IN AN OFFSHORE MARINE ENVIRONMENT INVOLVING THREE OPTIONS: FPSO (FLOATING PRODUCTION STORAGE AND OFFLOADING), TLP (TENSION LEG PLATAFORM), AND SS(SEMI-SUBMERSIBLE), USING THE FINANCIAL, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND TECHNOLOGICAL ATTRIBUTES. THIS MODEL PERMIT TO SIMULATE SEVERAL OPTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES, AS WELL AS A RATIONAL TOOL FOR MANAGERS CHOOSE BETWEEN OIL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS ACCORDING TO FIRM PREFERENCES AND OBJECTIVES. KEY-WORDS: DECISION ANALYSIS, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, MULTI-ATTRIBUTE

Author :

Furtado, Ricardo 0
Suslick, Saul Barinisk

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